互补还是替代?发展中经济体中外国投入品的劳动力市场效应

This paper examines how import liberalization affects labor markets when labor and intermediate inputs can be complements or substitutes. We embed a constant-elasticity-of-substitution production function in a dynamic trade model, showing that labor market responses depend on sector-specific substitution elasticities. Empirically, we exploit tariff reductions in Colombia using a difference-in-differences design that decomposes trade shocks into import-competition and input channels. Import competition reduces the wage bill, while cheaper intermediate inputs increase it; these gains are driven by services, are imprecisely estimated in manufacturing, and reverse in agriculture. Combining the model with reduced-form estimates, we use indirect inference to recover sector-specific elasticities. We find substitution between labor and intermediates in agriculture and manufacturing, but complementarity in services. Allowing for this flexibility relative to a Cobb–Douglas benchmark amplifies worker reallocation toward services and away from agriculture. It also increases welfare in services and reduces it in manufacturing and agriculture.