Journal of International Economics · 2026 · Vu Chau、Marina Conesa Martinez、Taehoon Kim、JOHN G. SPRAY
中文摘要
我们利用一套新颖的统一口径数据集,研究 2020–2022 年疫情封锁冲击以及财政与货币刺激的通胀效应,该数据集涵盖 55 个国家中 1254 个国家—行业对的生产者价格和投入产出关联。我们的识别策略采用 Bartik 移动份额设计,其中国家—行业份额捕捉了对各类冲击的异质性暴露。结果表明,疫情封锁——以及随后的重新开放政策——是这一时期全球通胀的主导驱动因素。财政与货币政策在疫情第一年对防止通货紧缩发挥了重要作用,但其效应在复苏年份逐渐减弱。
Abstract
We study the inflationary effects of pandemic lockdown shocks and fiscal and monetary stimulus over 2020-22 using a novel harmonized dataset covering producer prices and input–output linkages for 1254 country–industry pairs across 55 countries. Our identification strategy employs a Bartik shift-share design, where country–industry shares capture the heterogeneous exposure to each shock. The results show that pandemic lockdowns – and the subsequent reopening policies – were the dominant drivers of global inflation during this period. Fiscal and monetary policies played an important role in preventing deflation in the first year of the pandemic, but their effects waned during the recovery years.