The global transmission of U.S. monetary policy
Journal of International Economics · 2026 · Riccardo Degasperi、Seokki Simon Hong、G. Ricco
中文摘要
美联储的决策影响全球经济状况,紧缩会带来广泛的衰退性效应。利用前沿的识别策略、覆盖30个经济体的数据集以及构建实证反事实的技术,我们表明大宗商品与石油价格在美国货币政策向全球总体通胀传导的过程中发挥着关键作用,且产生的效应以通缩为主。我们将这一新机制称为美国货币政策的“大宗商品价格渠道”。
Abstract
Fed’s decisions affect global economic conditions, with tightenings leading to widespread recessionary effects. Using a state-of-the-art identification strategy, a dataset covering 30 economies, and techniques for constructing empirical counterfactuals, we show that commodity and oil prices play a critical role in propagating US monetary policy to global headline inflation, generating predominantly deflationary effects. We refer to this novel mechanism as the ‘commodity price channel’ of US monetary policy.