Journal of International Economics · 2026 · Saleem Bahaj、Marie Fuchs、Ricardo Reis
中文摘要
截至2025年底，各国央行之间共有177条跨境流动性安排，连接的国家合计占世界GDP的81%。本文刻画了这些安排自2000年以来的演变。我们表明，这些安排构成了一个网络，银行即便其所在国央行与美联储没有协议，也能通过该网络间接获得美元。这些间接连接赋予中国人民银行核心地位，并揭示出流动性供给在地缘政治紧张面前的脆弱性。我们提供跨国证据表明，间接连接缩小了尾部条件下的CIP偏离，并提供因果证据表明，流动性安排与外汇储备互为替代。• 一套涵盖2000—2025年央行跨境流动性安排的全新综合数据集。• 对流动性安排跨时间、跨国家演变的历史梳理。• 一国即便没有与流动性来源国的直接安排，也能间接获得外国流动性。• 通过网络形成的间接连接与更低的CIP偏离相关。• 网络渠道外国流动性可及性的改善会因果性地降低外汇储备。
Abstract
At the end of 2025, there were 177 cross-border liquidity lines between central banks connecting countries that accounted for 81% of world GDP. This paper maps the evolution of these arrangements since 2000. We show that the lines form a network through which banks can indirectly obtain access to the USD even when their central bank has no agreement with the Federal Reserve. These indirect connections give the People’s Bank of China a central role and show the fragility of liquidity provision to geopolitical tensions. We present cross-country evidence that the indirect connections reduce CIP deviations at the tails, and causal evidence that liquidity lines are substitutes to FX reserves. • A new comprehensive dataset of central bank cross-border liquidity lines 2000-25. • A historical account of the evolution of liquidity lines across time and countries. • A country can indirectly access foreign liquidity even without a direct line to the source. • Indirect connections through the network are associated with lower CIP deviations. • Improvement in network access to foreign liquidity causally lowers FX reserves.