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农业进口、劳动力流动与福利

Agricultural imports, labor mobility, and welfare
Journal of International Economics · 2026 · Guanzu Ding、Haichao Fan、Rui Li、Huanhuan Wang、Xican Xi

中文摘要

利用住户层面和企业层面的数据,我们表明,大豆关税的下调降低了农业劳动投入和产出,并提高了农业效率。这一冲击引发了低技能劳动力向制造业的大规模再配置,扩大了企业就业但降低了企业层面生产率,同时加剧了城市低技能劳动力市场的竞争。我们的定量分析显示总体福利损失较小,但行业、地区和技能群体之间存在显著异质性。重要的是,降低迁移成本可以大幅缓解这一福利损失,这凸显了贸易自由化与国内劳动力市场改革相协调的必要性。通过比较结构性转型背后的各种力量,我们发现农业进口自由化("推力")是劳动力再配置的重要驱动力,而制造业出口扩张("拉力")则是福利增益的唯一来源。

Abstract

Using household- and firm-level data, we show that reductions in soybean tariffs lowered agricultural labor input and output, and improved agricultural efficiency. The shock induced a large reallocation of low-skilled labor into manufacturing, expanding firms’ employment but reducing firm-level productivity, while intensifying competition in urban low-skilled labor markets. Our quantitative analysis implies a small aggregate welfare loss, with substantial heterogeneity across sectors, regions, and skill groups. Importantly, lowering migration costs can substantially mitigate this welfare loss, highlighting the need to coordinate trade liberalization with domestic labor-market reforms. Comparing forces behind structural transformation, we find that agricultural import liberalization (“push”) was an important driver for labor reallocation, whereas manufacturing export expansion (“pull”) was the sole source of welfare gains.
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