Journal of International Economics · 2026 · Gaaitzen J. de Vries、Hagen Kruse、Emmanuel Mensah、Yabo Vidogbena、Kei-Mu Yi
中文摘要
我们通过一个开放经济的结构变迁模型，研究11个撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）国家制造业增加值份额的演变。我们的分析利用了SSA国家投入产出表的最新进展。我们的模型允许收入效应、替代效应与相对价格效应，以及比较优势与专业化效应。我们将模型校准为每年分别纳入每个SSA国家与九大主要经济体，覆盖2000年至2018年。我们对11个亚洲发展中国家（DA）也进行了类似校准。我们的主要结果是，本国与外国部门全要素生产率（TFP）是结构变迁的重要驱动因素。随时间推进的贸易一体化作用较小。然而，贸易作为外国生产率趋势的传导机制十分重要。尽管SSA国家与DA国家工业化的驱动因素和机制大体相似，但一个差异是SSA国家拥有更大的采矿业部门，这会产生荷兰病型效应。
Abstract
We study the evolution of manufacturing value-added shares in 11 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries through the lens of an open economy model of structural change. Our analysis leverages recent developments in input–output tables in SSA countries. Our model allows for income effects, substitution and relative price effects, and comparative advantage and specialization effects. We calibrate our model to include each SSA country with nine major economies for each year between 2000 and 2018. We do similar calibrations for 11 developing Asian (DA) countries. Our main results are that domestic and foreign sectoral TFP are important drivers of structural change. Trade integration over time plays a small role. However, trade is important as a transmission mechanism of foreign productivity trends. While the drivers and mechanisms of industrialization are broadly similar in SSA and DA countries, one difference is the larger mining sector in SSA countries, which generates Dutch disease-type effects.