Journal of International Economics · 2026 · Tiago Cavalcanti、Pedro Ogeda、Emanuel Ornelas
中文摘要
本文考察2018-2019年中美贸易战对巴西劳动力市场的间接影响。我们利用分行业关税变化以及各地方劳动力市场的行业就业分布,构建了地区贸易冲突暴露度的度量指标。随着巴西对华出口增加,研究发现,受中国对美出口报复性关税影响程度更高的地区,正规就业和工资总额相对增加。相比之下,美国对中国出口产品加征的关税对巴西劳动力市场没有显著影响。这种非对称反应与巴西的比较优势格局相一致。我们的研究结果有助于更好地理解双边贸易战在全球范围内错综复杂的影响。
Abstract
We examine the indirect effects of the 2018-2019 US-China trade war on Brazil’s labor market. We construct a measure of regional exposure to the trade conflict using industry-specific tariff changes and the sectoral employment distribution across local labor markets. Following higher Brazilian exports to China, our findings reveal that regions more exposed to Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US exports experienced a relative increase in formal employment and wage bills. In contrast, American tariffs on Chinese exports had no significant impact on Brazilian labor markets. These asymmetric responses are consistent with Brazil’s pattern of comparative advantage. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the intricate worldwide implications of bilateral trade wars.