Journal of International Economics · 2026 · Devashish Mitra、Hoang Pham、Beyza Ural Marchand
中文摘要
本文利用跨越16年的八轮越南家庭生活水平调查,并以2001年美越双边贸易协定(BTA)作为识别来源,考察这一大规模出口冲击对代际职业流动的影响。平均而言,BTA提高了儿子和女儿的向上绝对职业流动性,其效应随年龄变化,对儿子大致呈U形,对女儿呈倒U形。然而,相对职业流动性——与子女职业地位作为父母职业地位函数的梯度呈反向关系——平均而言因BTA而下降,该效应同样因年龄组而异。虽然BTA改善了平均意义上子女的职业流动性,但父母职业地位排名居前的子女获益尤为明显。此外,BTA提高了各性别子女在大学教育方面的人力资本投资,以及儿子在职业培训方面的人力资本投资。更高的个体人力资本和初始省级人力资本也促进了这种流动性。
Abstract
Using eight rounds of the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys spanning 16 years and exploiting the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) in 2001, we investigate the impact of this large export shock on intergenerational occupational mobility. The BTA has, on average, led to greater upward absolute occupational mobility among sons and daughters, with effects following roughly a U-shape by age for sons and an inverse-U for daughters. However, relative occupational mobility, inversely related to the gradient of the child’s occupational rank as a function of the parent’s, decreased on average as a result of the BTA, with this effect also varying across age groups. While the BTA improved occupational mobility for an average child, children born to top-ranked parents benefited disproportionately. Also, the BTA increased human capital investment in college education across genders and vocational training for sons. Furthermore, higher individual and initial province-level human capital facilitated this mobility.