消费者融资的财政刺激:来自中国数字消费券的证据
Consumer-Financed Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from Digital Coupons in China
AER: Insights · 2025 · [{"name": "Jing Ding", "affiliation": ["Tongji University"]}, {"name": "Lei Jiang", "affiliation": ["Kent State University"]}, {"name": "Lucy Msall", "affiliation": ["University of Chicago"]}, {"name": "Matthew Notowidigdo", "affiliation": ["University of Chicago"]}]
中文摘要
2020年, 中国地方政府开始发放数字消费券, 以刺激餐饮、超市等目标类别的消费。利用某大型电子商务平台的数据并采用聚束(bunching)估计方法, 我们发现, 政府每支出1元消费券, 会带动消费大幅增加3.1至3.2元。这一较大的消费反应并非源于对非目标消费类别支出的替代, 也非源于短期的跨期替代。为从理论上解释这些结果, 我们构建了一个动态消费模型, 阐明消费券的最低消费门槛如何形成临时性缺口(notch), 进而引发较大的消费反应。(JEL D15, E21, H72, L81, O18, P25, P36)
Abstract
In 2020, local governments in China began issuing digital coupons to stimulate spending in targeted categories such as restaurants and supermarkets. Using data from a large e-commerce platform and a bunching estimation approach, we find that the coupons caused large increases in spending of 3.1–3.2 yuan per yuan spent by the government. The large spending responses do not come from substitution away from nontargeted spending categories or from short-run intertemporal substitution. To rationalize these results, we develop a dynamic consumption model showing how coupons' minimum spending thresholds create temporary notches that lead to large spending responses. (JEL D15, E21, H72, L81, O18, P25, P36)