中文摘要
2020年，中国地方政府开始发放数字消费券，以刺激餐饮、超市等特定类别的消费支出。利用某大型电子商务平台的数据和聚束估计方法，我们发现，政府每支出1元消费券资金，会使消费支出大幅增加3.1—3.2元。这一大幅支出反应并非源于消费者从非目标类别向目标类别的替代性转移，也并非源于短期跨期替代。为解释这些结果，我们构建了一个动态消费模型，说明消费券的最低消费门槛如何形成暂时性的“凹口”（notch），从而引发大幅支出反应。(JEL D15, E21, H72, L81, O18, P25, P36)
Abstract
In 2020, local governments in China began issuing digital coupons to stimulate spending in targeted categories such as restaurants and supermarkets. Using data from a large e-commerce platform and a bunching estimation approach, we find that the coupons caused large increases in spending of 3.1–3.2 yuan per yuan spent by the government. The large spending responses do not come from substitution away from nontargeted spending categories or from short-run intertemporal substitution. To rationalize these results, we develop a dynamic consumption model showing how coupons' minimum spending thresholds create temporary notches that lead to large spending responses. (JEL D15, E21, H72, L81, O18, P25, P36)