表亲结婚的健康影响:来自美国系谱记录的证据
Health Effects of Cousin Marriage: Evidence from US Genealogical Records
AER: Insights · 2025 · [{"name": "Sam Il Myoung Hwang", "affiliation": ["Seoul National University"]}, {"name": "Deaglan Jakob", "affiliation": ["University of British Columbia"]}, {"name": "Munir Squires", "affiliation": ["University of British Columbia"]}]
中文摘要
当今许多国家的表亲婚姻率很高。既有研究已记录此类婚姻会增加婴儿和儿童死亡风险，而我们首次估计了此类婚姻对整个成年期预期寿命的影响。通过研究一个多世纪前结婚的夫妇，我们得以观察其子女的整个生命历程。美国族谱数据使我们能够识别父母互为一代堂/表亲的子女，并将其寿命年数与其父母兄弟姐妹的子女进行比较。与表亲结婚会使五岁时预期寿命减少两年以上，叠加于已有文献记录的生命早期效应之上。（JEL I12, J12, J13, N31, N32）
Abstract
Cousin marriage rates are high in many countries today. While previous studies have documented increased risks of infant and child mortality, we provide the first estimate of the effect of such marriages on life expectancy throughout adulthood. By studying couples married over a century ago, we can observe their offspring across the entire lifespan. US genealogical data allow us to identify children whose parents were first cousins and compare their years of life to the offspring of their parents' siblings. Marrying a cousin leads to more than a two-year reduction in age-five life expectancy, compounding the documented early-life effects. (JEL I12, J12, J13, N31, N32)