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枪支偏好

Preferences for Firearms
AER: Insights · 2025 · Sarah Moshary、Bradley Shapiro、Sara Drango

中文摘要

本文为制定有效的枪支政策提供了一项关键依据:对消费者枪支需求的理解。我们利用陈述选择实验,估计个体层面的价格敏感性以及不同枪支类型之间的替代模式。我们发现,潜在枪支购买者总体上对价格不敏感,但首次购买者的价格敏感性最高。我们还估计发现,从半自动长枪(有时称为“攻击性武器”)向手枪的替代程度相当显著,而手枪对应的每支枪犯罪数量更多。(JEL D12, D72, K23, K42, L51, L64, M31)

Abstract

This paper provides a critical input into crafting effective firearms policy: an understanding of consumer demand for guns. We estimate individual-level price sensitivity and substitution patterns across gun types using stated-choice experiments. We find that potential firearm buyers are price insensitive overall but that first-time buyers are the most price sensitive. We also estimate considerable substitution from semiautomatic long guns (sometimes called “assault weapons”) to handguns, which are associated with more crimes per gun. (JEL D12, D72, K23, K42, L51, L64, M31)
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