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气候变化、需求不确定性与企业投资:来自计划中电厂的证据

Climate Change, Demand Uncertainty, and Firms' Investments: Evidence from Planned Power Plants
The Journal of Finance · 2026 · Chen Lin、Thomas M Schmid、Michael S. Weisbach

中文摘要

需求不确定性如何影响企业的投资决策?我们在电力生产企业计划投资新建电厂的背景下考察这一问题。我们利用科学气候模型之间温度预测的合理外生变异来衡量未来电力需求的不确定性。结果显示,不确定性增加了采用灵活生产技术的电厂的投资,同时减少了灵活性较低技术的投资。总体而言,当企业可以获得灵活的投资机会时,不确定性对投资的净效应为正。这些发现与生产灵活性决定投资对需求不确定性之反应的模型相一致。

Abstract

ABSTRACT How does demand uncertainty affect firms' investment decisions? We examine this question in the context of electricity‐producing firms' planned investments in new power plants. We measure uncertainty about future electricity demand using plausibly exogenous variation in temperature projections across scientific climate models. The results show that uncertainty increases investment in power plants with flexible production technologies, while reducing investment in less flexible technologies. Overall, the net effect of uncertainty on investment is positive when firms have access to flexible investment opportunities. These findings are consistent with models in which production flexibility shapes the investment response to demand uncertainty.
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