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极限学习:从信贷额度扩展推断收入

Learning in the Limit: Income Inference from Credit Extensions
The Journal of Finance · 2026 · Xiao Yin

中文摘要

本文将随机对照试验与行政数据和调查数据相结合,表明信贷额度扩展显著提高了总支出和收入预期。在控制个人收入预期的变化后,支出对信贷额度扩展的响应减弱了约30%。对于未受金融约束的消费者,预期变化解释了信贷额度扩展所引致的支出响应的约三分之二。这些发现与消费者从信贷供给中推断未来收入相一致。

Abstract

ABSTRACT Combining a randomized controlled trial with administrative and survey data, this paper shows that credit limit extensions significantly increase total spending and income expectations. By controlling for changes in personal income expectations, the spending response to credit limit extensions weakens by approximately 30%. For financially unconstrained consumers, expectation changes account for around two‐thirds of the spending responses to limit extensions. These findings are consistent with consumers inferring future income from credit supply.
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