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信息提供实验中两阶段最小二乘(TSLS)估计量的解读

Interpreting TSLS Estimators in Information Provision Experiments
AER: Insights · 2025 · Vod Vilfort、Whitney Zhang

中文摘要

在信息提供实验中,研究者经常使用两阶段最小二乘(TSLS)估计信念对行动的因果效应。本文对排除条件与单调性条件作出形式化表述,这些条件确保TSLS识别出因果效应的正权重加权平均值。我们评估了文献中被动对照设计与主动对照设计下常用的TSLS估计量,发现两种常用的被动对照估计量一般可能出现负权重。在模拟和一项实证应用中,被动对照估计量的选择会影响估计值的大小与统计显著性。我们就如何应对这些问题提出了实用建议。

Abstract

In information provision experiments, researchers often estimate the causal effects of beliefs on actions using two-stage least squares (TSLS). This paper formalizes exclusion and monotonicity conditions that ensure that TSLS recovers a positive-weighted average of causal effects. We assess common TSLS estimators for both passive and active control designs from the literature; we find that two commonly used passive control estimators generally allow for negative weights. The choice of passive control estimator affects the magnitude and significance of estimates in simulations and in an empirical application. We give practical recommendations for addressing these issues. (JEL C26, C90, D21, D83, E23)
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