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家计调查型公共交通补贴:因果证据与启示

Means‐Tested Public Transportation Subsidies: Causal Evidence and Implications
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · 2026 · Seoyoon Ahn、Matthew L. Freedman、David Phillips、Atheendar Venkataramani

中文摘要

本文评估了华盛顿州金县一项新颖且大规模项目的效果,该项目为低收入人群提供免费公共交通。综合运用实验与准实验方法以及丰富的行政与调查数据,我们发现,提供免费公共交通对流动性或与健康和福祉相关的下游结果的影响非常有限。我们考察了这些有限效应的可能解释,这些结果与既往研究的发现形成对比。我们的结果表明,新冠疫情之后外部环境的变化,包括逃票相关行为规范的变化,降低了低收入人群公共交通出行需求的价格弹性。

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the effects of a novel and large‐scale program in King County, Washington, that provides fare‐free public transportation to individuals with low incomes. Using both experimental and quasi‐experimental methods together with rich administrative and survey data, we find that providing free transit has very limited effects on mobility or downstream outcomes related to health and well‐being. We examine possible explanations for the modest effects, which contrast with findings from prior research. Our results suggest that changes in the external environment post‐COVID‐19 pandemic, including changes in norms around fare evasion, reduced the price elasticity of demand for travel by transit among individuals with low incomes.
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