中文摘要
本文研究全球化如何影响从商品向服务的结构转型。我构建了一个多国、多部门模型，其中的结构转型通过收入、价格、比较优势或投入产出关联的变化而发生。我用1995年至2018年66个处于不同经济发展阶段国家的数据对模型进行参数化。分解分析表明，在塑造结构转型方面，全球化的作用超过生产率增长，且全球化的影响主要通过比较优势发挥作用。反事实分析揭示了全球化对各国结构转型的异质性影响。我刻画了这一结果背后的根本因素：全球化通过改变各国的比较优势而影响其结构转型。在部门中性全球化的国家——即商品和服务出口贸易成本相对于进口贸易成本以相近幅度变化——比较优势和结构转型受到的影响极小。在部门偏向性全球化的国家，当全球化使比较优势转向服务业时，结构转型加速；反之则放缓。
Abstract
This paper studies how globalization impacts structural transformation from goods to services. I construct a multi-country, multi-sector model in which the transformation occurs through changes in income, prices, comparative advantage, or input–output linkages. I parameterize it with data from 1995 to 2018 for 66 countries covering diverse stages of economic development. Decomposition exercises show that globalization outweighs productivity growth in shaping structural transformation and that globalization’s impact primarily operates through comparative advantage. Counterfactual exercises reveal globalization’s heterogeneous impact on countries’ structural transformation. I characterize the underlying factor behind this result: Globalization affected countries’ transformation to the extent that it altered their comparative advantage. In countries with sector-neutral globalization—where export trade costs relative to import trade costs changed at similar rates for goods and services—comparative advantage and structural transformation were minimally impacted. In countries with sector-biased globalization, the transformation accelerated when the globalization shifted comparative advantage toward services, but decelerated otherwise.