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碳定价在各国的分配效应

The distributional effects of carbon pricing across countries
Journal of International Economics · 2026 · Mathilde Le Moigne、Simon Lepot、Marcos Ritel、Dora Simon

中文摘要

我们运用一个纳入气候政策的定量国际贸易模型,考察碳定价在各国的分配效应。我们的分析针对全球气候行动面临的两个关键问题:哪些国家承担气候政策的最大负担,以及如何设计这些政策以确保公平。我们提出三项主要发现。第一,无视分配关切的效率型气候政策会显著加剧国家间不平等。第二,当气候政策辅以经济上可行的国际转移支付——无论是均等化碳税成本还是计入历史排放——时,公平可以与效率兼得,且对高收入国家的经济影响极小。第三,采用差异化定价的碳税方案——对低收入和中等收入国家设定更低税率——并不必然带来更公平的结果。

Abstract

We use a quantitative international trade model with climate policies to explore the distributional effects of carbon pricing across countries. Our analysis addresses two key questions facing global climate action: which countries bear the greatest burden of climate policies, and how these policies can be designed to ensure fairness. We present three main findings. First, efficient climate policies that disregard distributional concerns significantly exacerbate between-country inequality. Second, equity can be achieved alongside efficiency when climate policies are complemented by economically feasible international transfers, either equalizing carbon tax costs or accounting for historical emissions, with minimal economic impact on high-income countries. Third, carbon tax schemes with heterogeneous pricing—featuring lower rates for low- and middle-income countries— do not necessarily result in fairer outcomes.
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