贸易战与贸易战传言：美中关税上调的动态效应

We use a general equilibrium dynamic trade model to study the effects of the U.S.–China tariff hikes on the global economy. Our model captures key trade patterns since the tariff hikes, such as the pace of the decline in U.S.–China bilateral trade and the reallocation of global imports from the U.S. toward China. The welfare losses from the tariff hikes are much larger in our dynamic model than implied by static trade models. Expectations about the persistence of the tariff hikes shape aggregate dynamics in the short to medium run.