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历史上的军事冲突、当前的贸易紧张与全球供应链

Historical military conflict, current trade tensions, and global supply chains
Journal of International Economics · 2026 · Yichuan Hu、Chang Li、Shu Lin

中文摘要

我们研究中美之间的两场重大冲突——朝鲜战争与当前的贸易战——如何影响全球供应链。利用手工收集的数据,我们发现朝鲜战争在董事长籍贯所在城市造成的死亡人数,强烈影响着当今中国企业在选择美国供应商上的决策。此外,当前的贸易紧张局势重新激活了战时创伤的记忆,显著放大了这一负面影响。我们识别出驱动这一变化的两个关键机制:中国的报复性关税以及中国国内对朝鲜战争媒体报道的增加。多种实证检验表明,我们的发现具有因果性,且并非美国供应商选择所致。

Abstract

We study how two significant conflicts between China and the U.S.—the Korean War and the current trade war—affect global supply chains. Using hand-collected data, we find that the death toll from the Korean War in a chairperson's city of origin strongly influences Chinese firms' selection of U.S. suppliers today. Moreover, the current trade tensions reactivate memories of wartime trauma, significantly amplifying their negative effects. We identify two key mechanisms driving this change: Chinese retaliatory tariffs and increased media coverage of the Korean War within China. A variety of empirical tests suggest that our findings are causal and are not a result of U.S. suppliers' choice.
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