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美国电力生产立即逐步削减煤炭的可行性、成本与收益

On the Feasibility, Costs, and Benefits of an Immediate Phasedown of Coal for US Electricity Generation
Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists · 2026 · Stephen P. Holland、Matthew J. Kotchen、Erin T. Mansur、Andrew J. Yates

中文摘要

本研究考察在现有电厂机组条件下立即逐步削减美国燃煤发电的可行性。我们将电力消费视为给定,评估优先使用天然气发电而非燃煤发电将如何改变排放与运行成本。为此,我们构建了一个基于输电区域和边际成本比较的替代算法。我们发现,66%至94%的燃煤发电可被立即替代,使电力部门二氧化碳排放减少18%至29%——相当于美国能源相关排放总量的5%至8%。成本区间为每吨二氧化碳49至92美元,在仅考虑本地污染物协同效益的某些情景下,收益成本比是有利的。尽管优先使用天然气发电具有命令—控制性质,但我们发现,即使与庇古税相比,它也相对具有成本效益。

Abstract

In this study, we examine the feasibility of immediately phasing down US coal-generated electricity given the existing fleet of power plants. We take consumption as given and evaluate how prioritizing natural gas generation over that of coal would change emissions and operating costs. To do this, we develop a replacement algorithm based on transmission regions and marginal cost comparisons. We find that between 66% and 94% of coal generation could be replaced immediately, reducing electricity sector CO2 emissions between 18% and 29%—equivalent to between 5% and 8% of total US energy-related emissions. The cost range is between $49 and $92 per ton of CO2, where benefit-cost ratios are favorable in some scenarios considering local pollutant cobenefits alone. Despite the command-and-control nature of prioritizing natural gas generation, we find it relatively cost-effective even in comparison to a Pigouvian tax.
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