Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists · 2026 · Sarah C. Whitnall、Timothy K.M. Beatty
中文摘要
我们量化了天气和气候通过产量与品质对加工番茄种植户收入的影响——品质虽然在价格决定中发挥作用,却是一个研究不足的渠道。剔除低质量产品会使天气和气候对农业影响的估计产生选择性偏误。我们的新颖数据使我们能够估计这一偏误。我们发现,极端温度同时降低产量与品质,从而导致收入减少。尽管产量效应占主导,但若不考虑品质,会显著低估温度暴露对收入的影响。我们预测,在缺乏适应措施且其他条件不变的情况下,气候变化将使本世纪末的产量和品质显著下降。当估计依赖于超过质量阈值的产出子集数据时,产量效应会被高估,而品质效应会被低估。忽略品质选择的实证研究可能会错误呈现气候变化带来的挑战。
Abstract
We quantify the effect of weather and climate on the revenue of processing-tomato farmers through yield and quality—quality being an understudied channel despite its role in price determination. Screening out low-quality products introduces selection bias into estimates of the effect of weather and climate on agriculture. Our novel data allow us to estimate this bias. We find that extreme temperatures reduce both yield and quality, leading to reduced revenue. While the yield effect dominates, failing to account for quality leads to a significant underestimate of the effect of temperature exposure on revenue. We predict that climate change will significantly reduce yield and quality by century’s end absent adaptation and all else equal. Yield effects are overstated while quality effects are understated when estimation relies on data on a subset of output that exceeds a quality threshold. Empirical work that ignores selection on quality may misrepresent the climate change challenge.