Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists · 2026 · Erik S. Katovich、Dominic P. Parker、Steven Poelhekke
中文摘要
行业部门的扩张与收缩导致劳动力从衰退行业重新配置到繁荣行业。哪些类型的工人从这些转换中受益或受损？我们利用巴西石油部门跨越繁荣-衰退周期的雇主-雇员匹配面板数据，将进入石油行业的劳动者与同年受雇于其他行业的紧密匹配工人进行比较。我们发现，进入时机与工人技能以具有持久影响的方式相互作用。只有在繁荣期之初受雇进入石油行业的高学历工人，才能在整个繁荣-衰退周期中获得持续的收入溢价。对大多数较晚进入者，尤其是低学历工人而言，进入石油行业的决定导致持续失业与收入惩罚。我们记录了这一“先进入、最后退出”模式背后的机制。专业职业中积累的经验使高学历早期进入者免受经济下行的影响，而行业专用培训项目的繁荣则加剧了较晚进入者之间的竞争。我们讨论了这些发现对能源转型的启示。
Abstract
Sectoral expansions and contractions cause labor reallocation out of declining industries and into booming industries. Which types of workers gain and lose from these transitions? Using linked employer-employee panel data from Brazil spanning boom-bust cycles in its oil sector, we compare oil entrants with closely matched workers hired into other sectors in the same year. We find that entry timing interacts with worker skill in ways that have lasting effects. Only highly educated workers hired into oil at the onset of a boom reap persistent earnings premiums across the boom-bust cycle. For most later entrants, especially low-education workers, the decision to enter the oil industry results in persistent unemployment and earnings penalties. We document mechanisms underlying this first-in, last-out pattern. Accumulated experience in professional occupations insulates high-education early entrants from downturns, while a boom in sector-specific training programs intensifies competition among later entrants. We discuss implications for energy transitions.