出口农业与农村贫困：来自印度尼西亚棕榈油的证据

This paper measures the impacts of Indonesia’s palm oil export expansion on district poverty and household expenditure from 2002 to 2015. Identification exploits geographic variation in agro-climatic suitability in a long difference instrumental variable framework. The main result is that a 10 percentage point increase in district area under cultivation for oil palm corresponds to around six percentage points faster poverty reduction and nine percent faster expenditure growth. The expenditure gains are principally explained by rising returns to agricultural labor. I find no evidence of labor reallocation across sectors: new farmland absorbed labor saved from palm adoption. The expansion increased local government revenues, spending and public goods, while increasing deforestation, forest fires, certain health problems and conflict. Indonesian palm oil thus provides a striking modern illustration of some of the trade-offs inherent in large changes in trade and land use.