Commercial rivalry as seller incidence shifting: Non-parametric accounting of the China shock
Journal of International Economics · 2026 · James E. Anderson
Abstract
Intense US–China commercial rivalry is quantified in this paper with novel non-parametric relative resistance sufficient statistics. China’s manufacturing seller incidence falls (seller price rises) 8.2% yearly as China’s sales share quadruples over 2000-14. US seller incidence rises 6.3% yearly as US sales share halves. A 10% rise in US (China) 2014 sales share reduces seller incidence 10.05% (9.74%) and raises average seller incidence of others. Trade elasticities very close to one fit trade shares to revealed relative resistances. Trade elasticities identified off variation in observable buyer prices or trade costs are biased upward by omitted variation in unobservable buyer frictions.