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利用卫星影像测量新建高速公路的影响:以印度为例

Using satellite imagery to measure the impacts of new highways: An application to India
Journal of International Economics · 2026 · Kathryn Baragwanath、Gordon Hanson、Amit K. Khandelwal、Chen Liu、Hogeun Park

中文摘要

本文将白天与夜间卫星影像纳入一个空间一般均衡模型,以评估新建高速公路投资的回报。在空间颗粒度经济数据稀缺的发展中国家情境中,我们的方法具有独特价值。为展示该方法,我们利用公开可得的影像评估了印度2000年代初的道路建设项目。模型估计与福利影响评估仅需遥感数据。我们发现,印度的道路投资改善了总体福利,对最大与最小的城市市场尤为明显。福利收益在空间上分布不均:黄金四边形(Golden Quadrilateral)不成比例地惠及规模较大、已实现联通的市场,而国道升级则为规模较小、更偏远的地区带来更大收益。更一般地,在这一时期福利变化的整体空间方差中,地区内部差异解释了相当大的份额,这凸显了高分辨率卫星影像在捕捉局部经济效应方面的价值。

Abstract

This paper integrates daytime and nighttime satellite imagery into a spatial general-equilibrium model to evaluate the returns to investments in new motorways. Our approach has particular value in developing-country settings in which spatially granular economic data are scarce. To demonstrate our method, we use publicly available imagery to evaluate India’s road construction projects in the early 2000s. Estimating the model and evaluating welfare impacts only requires remotely-sensed data. We find that India’s road investments improved aggregate welfare, particularly for the largest and smallest urban markets. Welfare gains were unevenly distributed across space, with the Golden Quadrilateral disproportionately benefiting large, already connected markets, while national highway upgrades delivered greater gains to smaller, more remote locations. More generally, within-district variation explains a large share of the overall spatial variance in welfare changes during this period, underscoring the value of high-resolution satellite imagery for capturing localized economic effects.
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