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应用经济学中的局部投影法

Local Projections for Applied Economics
Annual Review of Economics · 2023 · Òscar Jordà

中文摘要

干预对结果的动态因果效应,是应用宏观经济学与应用微观经济学研究极为关注的问题。然而,这两类文献通常以不同的方式处理这一问题。在从传统时间序列方法向应用微观计量经济学过渡的过程中,局部投影法可以充当一座自然的桥梁。局部投影法能够将人们熟悉的向量自回归与脉冲响应的语言,转化为潜在结果与处理效应的语言。通过进一步整合各自成熟的方法,两类文献均可从中获益。本综述展示了如何建立这些联系,并指出了进一步研究的潜在领域。

Abstract

The dynamic causal effect of an intervention on an outcome is of paramount interest to applied macro- and microeconomics research. However, this question has been generally approached differently by the two literatures. In making the transition from traditional time series methods to applied microeconometrics, local projections can serve as a natural bridge. Local projections can translate the familiar language of vector autoregressions and impulse responses into the language of potential outcomes and treatment effects. There are gains to be made by both literatures from greater integration of well-established methods in each. This review shows how to make these connections and points to potential areas of further research.
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