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美中贸易关系的经验教训

Lessons from US–China Trade Relations
Annual Review of Economics · 2023 · Lorenzo Caliendo、Fernando Parro

中文摘要

我们回顾了过去20年间有关美中贸易关系经济效应的理论与实证研究。首先,我们讨论中国冲击的起源及其测度,并介绍用于研究其对不同结果变量之经济效应的方法。随后,我们聚焦于近期的美中贸易战:回顾用于评估其效应的方法,描述其经济效应,并分析这一贸易保护主义加剧是否逆转了中国冲击所产生的影响。本综述得出的主要经验教训是:(a)美中贸易带来的总体收益造就了赢家和输家;(b)中国的贸易扩张似乎并非同期美国制造业就业下降的主要原因;(c)近期的贸易战造成了福利损失,对就业的影响较小,且未能有效扭转中国冲击所产生的分配效应。

Abstract

We review theoretical and empirical work on the economic effects of the United States and China trade relations during the past 20 years. We first discuss the origins of the China shock and its measurement and present methods used to study its economic effects on different outcomes. We then focus on the recent US–China trade war. We review methods used to evaluate its effects, describe its economic effects, and analyze whether this increase in trade protectionism reverted the effects of the China shock. The main lessons learned in this review are that (a) the aggregate gains from US–China trade created winners and losers; (b) China's trade expansion seems not to be the main cause of the decline in US manufacturing employment during the same period; and (c) the recent trade war generated welfare losses, had small employment effects, and was ineffective in reversing the distributional effects due to the China shock.
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