中美贸易关系的经验教训
Lessons from US–China Trade Relations
Annual Review of Economics · 2023 · [{"name": "Lorenzo Caliendo", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "Yale University"]}, {"name": "Fernando Parro", "affiliation": ["Pennsylvania State University", "National Bureau of Economic Research"]}]
中文摘要
我们综述了过去20年间美中贸易关系的经济效应方面的理论与实证研究。我们首先讨论中国冲击的起源及其度量，并介绍用于研究其对不同结果的经济效应的方法。随后，我们聚焦于近期的美中贸易战，综述用于评估其效应的方法，描述其经济效应，并分析这种贸易保护主义的抬头是否逆转了中国冲击的效应。本综述得到的主要经验是：(a) 美中贸易的总体收益创造了赢家和输家；(b) 中国的贸易扩张似乎并非同期美国制造业就业下降的主要原因；(c) 近期贸易战造成了福利损失，对就业的影响较小，且未能有效逆转中国冲击所带来的分配效应。
Abstract
We review theoretical and empirical work on the economic effects of the United States and China trade relations during the past 20 years. We first discuss the origins of the China shock and its measurement and present methods used to study its economic effects on different outcomes. We then focus on the recent US–China trade war. We review methods used to evaluate its effects, describe its economic effects, and analyze whether this increase in trade protectionism reverted the effects of the China shock. The main lessons learned in this review are that (a) the aggregate gains from US–China trade created winners and losers; (b) China's trade expansion seems not to be the main cause of the decline in US manufacturing employment during the same period; and (c) the recent trade war generated welfare losses, had small employment effects, and was ineffective in reversing the distributional effects due to the China shock.