Global Risk, Non-Bank Financial Intermediation, and Emerging Market Vulnerabilities
中文摘要
过去二十年中，非银行金融中介空前扩张，尤其是开放式共同基金和交易所交易基金的兴起，其提供的融资占流向新兴市场的外部融资流量的近一半，超过全球银行的跨境贷款。有证据表明，投资基金流动增强了跨境风险分担，并为新兴市场提供了更多样化的融资渠道。然而，越来越多的证据也表明，在全球金融市场承压时期，投资基金本质上更容易受到流动性风险和赎回风险的影响，从而加剧了流向新兴市场的资本流动的波动性。与主动型基金相比，基准驱动型投资（即被动型基金）对全球风险冲击（如美元融资条件收紧）似乎尤为敏感。全球承压时期流向新兴市场的投资基金流动所具有的顺周期性，引发了金融稳定方面的担忧，并对宏观审慎政策的作用具有重要意义。
Abstract
Over the last two decades, the unprecedented increase in non-bank financial intermediation, particularly the rise of open-end mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, accounts for nearly half of the external financing flows to emerging markets, exceeding cross-border lending by global banks. Evidence suggests that investment fund flows enhance risk sharing across borders and provide emerging markets access to more diverse forms of financing. However, a growing body of evidence also indicates that investment funds are inherently more vulnerable to liquidity and redemption risks during periods of global financial market stress, increasing the volatility of capital flows to emerging markets. Benchmark-driven investments, namely passive funds, appear particularly sensitive to global risk shocks, such as tightening US dollar funding conditions, compared to their active fund counterparts. The procyclicality of investment fund flows to emerging markets during times of global stress poses financial stability concerns, with implications for the role of macroprudential policy.