理论论文

理论论文

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Job Ladder and Wealth Dynamics in General Equilibrium

一般均衡中的工作阶梯与财富动态

Econometrica · 2026, 94(4) · Leo Kaas、Étienne Lalé、Nawid Siassi ·

社会保险劳动经济学财政收入失业保险就业与劳动力市场工资个人所得税

本文构建了一个宏观经济模型,将不完全市场的世代交叠经济与工作阶梯相结合,该工作阶梯具有序贯工资议价、就业与非就业劳动者内生的搜寻努力以及匹配质量的差异。借助这些要素,我们的模型为总量生产的三个主要投入——资本、就业和劳动效率——提供了统一的微观基础。校准后的模型能够很好地拟合搜寻活动、求职成功率、工资和储蓄的经验年龄剖面。我们运用该模型,通过资本、就业和劳动效率渠道分析税收与转移支付政策对劳动力市场动态和总体经济活动的影响。降低失业保险金和降低累进性的税制会给新生劳动者带来福利损失,这主要由更高的消费风险和更昂贵的搜寻努力所驱动;这两项政策在年龄、收入和财富维度上具有差异化效应。

英文原文

This paper develops a macroeconomic model that combines an incomplete‐markets overlapping‐generations economy with a job ladder featuring sequential wage bargaining, endogenous search effort of employed and non‐employed workers, and differences in match quality. With these ingredients, our model provides a joint microfoundation for the three main inputs in aggregate production: capital, employment, and labor efficiency. The calibrated model offers a good fit to the empirical age profiles of search activity, job‐finding rates, wages, and savings. We use the model to analyze the impact of tax and transfer policies for labor market dynamics and aggregate economic activity via capital, employment, and labor efficiency channels. Lower unemployment benefits and a less progressive tax schedule bring about welfare losses for a newborn worker which are mainly driven by higher consumption risk and costlier search effort; both policies have differential effects along the age, income, and wealth dimensions.

Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth

低利率、市场势力与生产率增长

Econometrica · 2022, 90(1) · Ernest Liu、Atif Mian、Amir Sufi ·

产业·创新·创业发展·增长·体制市场规制与反垄断发展·增长

本研究提出了一个新的理论结果:长期利率下降会引发市场领导者相对于市场追随者更强的投资反应,从而导致市场更加集中、利润更高、总体生产率增长更低。利率下降对市场集中度的这一策略性效应意味着,随着利率趋近于零,总体生产率增长将下降。该框架对低利率环境下的反垄断政策具有参考意义,并为经济中利率降至极低水平时市场集中度上升与生产率增长下降的现象提供了统一解释。

英文原文

This study provides a new theoretical result that a decline in the long‐term interest rate can trigger a stronger investment response by market leaders relative to market followers, thereby leading to more concentrated markets, higher profits, and lower aggregate productivity growth. This strategic effect of lower interest rates on market concentration implies that aggregate productivity growth declines as the interest rate approaches zero. The framework is relevant for antitrust policy in a low interest rate environment, and it provides a unified explanation for rising market concentration and falling productivity growth as interest rates in the economy have fallen to extremely low levels.

Money as a Unit of Account

作为记账单位的货币

Econometrica · 2017, 85(5) · Matthias Doepke、Martin Schneider ·

未归类E 宏观与货币经济学

我们构建了一个理论,为经济中主导记账单位的使用提供合理化解释。行为人与各类商业伙伴签订非或有合同。交易沿信用链依次展开,并受随机匹配的约束。通过使用主导记账单位,行为人可以降低其面临的相对价格风险敞口,避免代价高昂的违约,并创造更多总剩余。我们讨论了在何种条件下采用流通中的政府纸币作为主导记账单位是最优的,以及当区域内和区域间的贸易强度存在差异时"货币区"的最优选择问题。

英文原文

We develop a theory that rationalizes the use of a dominant unit of account in an economy.Agents enter into non-contingent contracts with a variety of business partners.Trade unfolds sequentially in credit chains and is subject to random matching.By using a dominant unit of account, agents can lower their exposure to relative price risk, avoid costly default, and create more total surplus.We discuss conditions under which it is optimal to adopt circulating government paper as the dominant unit of account, and the optimal choice of "currency areas" when there is variation in the intensity of trade within and across regions.