Rationed Fertility: Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in the Child Quantity-Quality Trade-Off
我们构建了生育配给的一个广义理论,以分析子女数量-质量权衡中的处理效应异质性。生育的外生增加既可能是合意的,也可能是非合意的。我们推导出,合意的生育增加对子女质量具有正的配给收入效应,而非合意的生育增加则具有负的配给收入效应。我们提出了一个识别合意与非合意生育增加之处理效应的计量经济学框架,并估计了一个结构模型,以衡量这一新颖的配给收入效应在数量上的重要性。我们的研究凸显了在评估社会项目时区分合意变化与非合意变化的重要性。
英文原文
We develop a generalized theory of rationed fertility to analyze treatment effect heterogeneity in the child quantity-quality trade-off. An exogenous increase in fertility can be either desired or undesired. We derive a positive rationing income effect on child quality for desired fertility increases but a negative rationing income effect for undesired fertility increases. We propose an econometric framework to identify treatment effects of desired and undesired fertility increases and estimate a structural model to gauge the quantitative importance of the novel rationing income effect. Our study highlights the importance of distinguishing between desired and undesired changes when evaluating social programs.