We study the uneven effects of a commodity cycle, documenting its impact across workers based on their skill level and the region where they live. To this end, we develop a dynamic quantitative model of a multi-region economy featuring spatial linkages (interregional trade and migration) and downward wage rigidity. Empirically, we focus on Brazil’s experience during the commodity boom of the 2000s and subsequent bust of the 2010s. The skill premium falls during the boom, while the extent of downward wage rigidity determines whether it reverts or maintains its decline during the bust. In addition, there is substantial heterogeneity across Brazilian states in the gains from the commodity cycle. Finally, we build counterfactuals to show that both spatial linkages (interregional migration and interregional trade) and downward wage rigidity jointly shape the impact of the commodity cycle on the skill premium, real wages, unemployment, and spatial disparities.
ABSTRACT I propose a dynamic equilibrium model of rental markets that endogenously gives rise to defaults on rents and evictions. In the model, eviction protections make it harder to evict delinquent renters, but higher default costs to landlords increase equilibrium rents. I quantify the model using micro data on evictions, rents, and homelessness. I find that stronger eviction protections exacerbate housing insecurity and lower welfare. The key empirical driver of this result is the persistent nature of risk underlying rent delinquencies. Rental assistance reduces housing insecurity and improves welfare because it lowers the likelihood that renters default ex ante.
Labor market polarization is among the most important features in recent decades of advanced country labor markets. Yet key spatial aspects of this phenomenon remain under-explored. We develop four key facts that document the universality of polarization across cities, a city-size difference in the shock magnitudes, a skew in the types of middle-paid jobs lost, and the role of polarization in the great urban divergence of skills. Existing theories cannot account for these facts. Hence we develop a parsimonious theoretical account that does so by integrating elements from the literatures on labor market polarization and systems of cities with heterogeneous labor in spatial equilibrium.
ABSTRACT We introduce the concept of subtle discrimination —biased acts that cannot be objectively ascertained as discriminatory. When candidates compete for promotions by investing in skills, firms' subtle biases induce discriminated candidates to overinvest when promotions are low‐stakes (to distinguish themselves from favored candidates) but underinvest in high‐stakes settings (anticipating low promotion probabilities). This asymmetry implies that subtle discrimination raises profits in low‐productivity firms but lowers them in high‐productivity firms. Although subtle biases are small, they generate large gaps in skills and promotion outcomes. We derive further predictions in contexts such as equity analysis, lending, fund flows, banking careers, and entrepreneurial finance.