理论论文

理论论文

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Existence of Myopic‐Farsighted Stable Sets in Matching Markets

匹配市场中短视-远见稳定集的存在性

Econometrica · 2026, 94(3) · Battal Doğan、Lars Ehlers ·

未归类D 微观经济学

在一对一匹配市场的背景下,我们研究短视-远见稳定集:当短视代理人只考虑其偏离带来的即期收益,而远见代理人预期反偏离并考虑最终收益时,该稳定集具有内部稳定性和外部稳定性。我们以构造性方式证明了(理性预期)短视-远见稳定集的存在性;在该稳定集中,远见代理人获得单一收益,而短视代理人可能获得多重收益。我们的存在性结果可推广至存在任意规模执行联盟的情形,从而得到联盟短视-远见稳定集;也可推广至执行联盟中并非所有成员都必须严格获益的情形,从而得到短视-远见弱稳定集。当所有远见代理人都具有单位需求时,我们的结果还可推广至多对一匹配市场。作为一个关键推论,我们为效率调整后的延迟接受算法提供了基础:当一方为远见型、另一方为短视型时,该算法的结果构成一个单点短视-远见稳定集。

英文原文

In the context of one-to-one matching markets, we study myopic-farsighted stable sets, which are internally and externally stable when myopic agents consider immediate payoffs from their deviations, while farsighted agents anticipate counter-deviations and consider final payoffs. We constructively prove the existence of a (rational expectations) myopic-farsighted stable set, in which farsighted agents receive a single payoff while myopic agents may receive multiple payoffs. Our existence result extends to settings with enforcing coalitions of arbitrary size, yielding coalitional myopic-farsighted stable sets, and to settings where not all members of an enforcing coalition must strictly gain, yielding myopic-farsighted weakly stable sets. When all farsighted agents have unit demand, our results also extend to many-to-one matching markets. As a key corollary, we provide a foundation for the efficiency-adjusted deferred acceptance algorithm by showing that its outcome constitutes a singleton myopic-farsighted stable set when one side is farsighted and the other is myopic.

Job Ladder and Wealth Dynamics in General Equilibrium

一般均衡中的工作阶梯与财富动态

Econometrica · 2026, 94(4) · Leo Kaas、Étienne Lalé、Nawid Siassi ·

社会保险劳动经济学财政收入失业保险就业与劳动力市场工资个人所得税

本文构建了一个宏观经济模型,将不完全市场的世代交叠经济与工作阶梯相结合,该工作阶梯具有序贯工资议价、就业与非就业劳动者内生的搜寻努力以及匹配质量的差异。借助这些要素,我们的模型为总量生产的三个主要投入——资本、就业和劳动效率——提供了统一的微观基础。校准后的模型能够很好地拟合搜寻活动、求职成功率、工资和储蓄的经验年龄剖面。我们运用该模型,通过资本、就业和劳动效率渠道分析税收与转移支付政策对劳动力市场动态和总体经济活动的影响。降低失业保险金和降低累进性的税制会给新生劳动者带来福利损失,这主要由更高的消费风险和更昂贵的搜寻努力所驱动;这两项政策在年龄、收入和财富维度上具有差异化效应。

英文原文

This paper develops a macroeconomic model that combines an incomplete‐markets overlapping‐generations economy with a job ladder featuring sequential wage bargaining, endogenous search effort of employed and non‐employed workers, and differences in match quality. With these ingredients, our model provides a joint microfoundation for the three main inputs in aggregate production: capital, employment, and labor efficiency. The calibrated model offers a good fit to the empirical age profiles of search activity, job‐finding rates, wages, and savings. We use the model to analyze the impact of tax and transfer policies for labor market dynamics and aggregate economic activity via capital, employment, and labor efficiency channels. Lower unemployment benefits and a less progressive tax schedule bring about welfare losses for a newborn worker which are mainly driven by higher consumption risk and costlier search effort; both policies have differential effects along the age, income, and wealth dimensions.

Firm-to-Firm Trade: Imports, Exports, and the Labor Market

企业间贸易:进口、出口与劳动力市场

Econometrica · 2026, 94(4) · Jonathan Eaton、Samuel S. Kortum、Françis Kramarz ·

劳动经济学贸易·开放就业与劳动力市场贸易政策

海关数据揭示了买卖双方关系的异质性与颗粒度,显示对某一目的地出口的增加如何分解为更多企业在当地销售以及每个出口商拥有更多买家。我们基于这一洞见,构建了一个企业间匹配的量化一般均衡模型,以分离冰山成本与匹配摩擦在引力中的作用。在横截面上,我们发现匹配摩擦在阻碍贸易方面与冰山成本同等重要,且对距离更为敏感。由于国内中间品与进口中间品在执行生产任务时同劳动直接竞争,我们的模型也能拟合法国生产企业间劳动份额的异质性。将该框架应用于2004年欧盟扩盟,冰山成本的下降与匹配摩擦的降低对法国对新成员国出口增长的贡献相当。尽管工人总体上从中受益,但与进口竞争最直接的工人获益较少,在某些新入盟国家甚至出现损失。

英文原文

Customs data reveal the heterogeneity and granularity of relationships among buyers and sellers, showing how more exports to a destination break down into more firms selling there and more buyers per exporter. We develop a quantitative general equilibrium model of firm‐to‐firm matching that builds on this insight to separate the roles of iceberg costs and matching frictions in gravity. In the cross section, we find matching frictions as important as iceberg costs in impeding trade, and more sensitive to distance. Because domestic and imported intermediates compete directly with labor in performing production tasks, our model also fits the heterogeneity of labor shares across French producers. Applying the framework to the 2004 expansion of the European Union, reduced iceberg costs and reduced matching frictions contributed equally to the increase in French exports to the new members. While workers benefited overall, those competing most directly with imports gained less, even losing in some countries entering the EU.