理论论文

理论论文

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Top income taxation: Efficiency, social welfare and the Laffer curve

顶层收入税制:效率、社会福利与拉弗曲线

Journal of Public Economics · 2026, 262 · Jacob Lundberg ·

收入分配财政收入再分配个人所得税

本文构建了一个分析顶层收入税制的结构性框架,并将其应用于美国六十年税史以及其他八个发达经济体。本文推导出在整个税率范围内顶层税档税收收入与总超额负担的显式表达式,同时保持与 Saez(2001)充分统计量方法的局部一致性。应用于美国时,该分析表明,在应税收入弹性为 0.25 的条件下,当前联邦顶层税档的超额负担为 1010 亿美元,而将最高边际税率提高至其收入最大化水平 72% 将使年收入增加 1110 亿美元。当前税率低于与纯粹基于效用的社会福利概念相一致的水平。相比之下,北欧国家以及早几十年的美国似乎曾在超过收入最大化水平的税率下运行。

英文原文

This paper develops a structural framework for analyzing top income taxation and applies it to six decades of U.S. tax history and to eight other advanced economies. The paper derives explicit expressions for top-bracket tax revenue and total excess burden across the full range of tax rates, while preserving local consistency with the sufficient-statistics approach of Saez (2001). Applied to the United States, the analysis implies that the current excess burden of the top federal tax bracket is $101 billion and that raising the top marginal tax rate to its revenue-maximizing level of 72 percent would increase annual revenue by $111 billion, given a taxable income elasticity of 0.25. The current tax rate is lower than what is consistent with a purely utility-based notion of social welfare. By contrast, Nordic countries and the United States in earlier decades appear to have operated at tax rates exceeding revenue-maximizing levels.

Smart power limits: Designing shortage mechanisms for extreme events

智能功率限额:为极端事件设计短缺机制

Journal of Public Economics · 2026, 262 · Mar Reguant、Mayra Wagner ·

消费环境·资源居民消费资源·能源

随着必需资源的短缺日益频繁,仅靠高价格可能无法抑制需求。我们研究居民用电的功率限额,这种机制限制家庭用电量,而非像轮流停电那样将用电量降为零。我们从理论和实证两方面表明,功率限额可以实现相当于大规模停电的节电量,同时影响的家庭更少。该机制通过筛选高用电户发挥作用,由此产生的分配权衡取决于限额是统一设定还是与合同功率成比例。这凸显了智能电表在改善短缺管理的同时保障基本电力服务可及性的潜力。

英文原文

As shortages of essential resources become more frequent, high prices alone may fail to curb demand. We study power limits for residential electricity, which restrict household consumption rather than setting it to zero as in rolling blackouts. We show theoretically and empirically that power limits can deliver electricity savings equivalent to sizable blackouts while affecting fewer households. The mechanism works through selection of high users, creating distributional trade-offs that depend on whether limits are uniform or proportional to contracted power. This highlights the potential of smart meters to improve shortage management while preserving access to essential electricity services.

Mortality regressivity and pension design

死亡率累退性与养老金设计

Journal of Public Economics · 2026, 262 · Youngsoo Jang、Svetlana Pashchenko、Ponpoje Porapakkarm ·

收入分配社会保险再分配养老保险

公共政策是否应当应对由异质性预期寿命导致的不平等?直观而言, 若将短寿视为一种劣势, 此类政策应当偏向高死亡率人群。然而, 养老金制度却隐性地从低预期寿命人群向高预期寿命人群进行再分配。而且, 从标准功利主义福利准则的角度来看, 这种再分配方向是最优的。我们在一个更为灵活的设定中研究与死亡率相关的再分配。我们首先建立一个正式分析框架, 明确区分死亡率维度与收入维度上的再分配。随后, 我们刻画了向高死亡率人群进行再分配为最优的条件。其中一个条件是, 福利准则必须表现出对终身不平等的厌恶程度超过对消费不平等的厌恶程度。

英文原文

Should public policies address inequality due to heterogeneous life expectancy? Intuitively, taking a short life as a disadvantage, such policies should favor those with high mortality. Yet, pension systems implicitly redistribute from low-life-expectancy to high-life-expectancy people. Moreover, this direction of redistribution is optimal from the perspective of the standard utilitarian welfare criterion. We study mortality-related redistribution in a more flexible setting. We start by establishing a formal framework for the analysis by clearly distinguishing between redistribution along the mortality and income dimensions. We then characterize the conditions under which it is optimal to redistribute toward high-mortality people. One such condition is that the welfare criterion must feature an aversion to lifetime inequality that exceeds the aversion to consumption inequality.

How to fund nonprofits?

如何资助非营利组织?

Journal of Public Economics · 2026, 262 · Eddy Zanoutene ·

财政支出与体制财政收入其它财政支出个人所得税政府预算

本文研究两类政策工具的最优组合:一是为非营利组织提供直接公共资金的政府拨款,二是降低慈善捐赠成本的税收激励。当非营利组织为吸引捐赠者而面临较高的筹资成本时,税收激励无法完全取代拨款,后者仍是最优资助政策的组成部分。当筹资成本足够低时,能够针对不同公益领域量身定制税收激励的政府可以完全通过捐赠为某些公益领域筹资。然而,当无法针对特定公益领域实行税收差异化时,拨款仍然是必要的,以应对不同公益领域资金需求的差异。在一个校准算例中,对慈善捐赠在各类公益领域实行统一税收待遇,会使拨款所覆盖的最优非营利组织资金份额从 0 提高到 60%。

英文原文

This paper studies the optimal combination of government grants that provide direct public funding to nonprofits and tax incentives that reduce the cost of charitable giving. When nonprofits face high fundraising costs to attract donors, tax incentives cannot fully replace grants, which remain part of the optimal funding policy. When fundraising costs are sufficiently low, a government that can tailor tax incentives across causes can finance some causes entirely through donations. However, when cause-specific tax differentiation is unavailable, grants remain necessary to accommodate differences in funding needs across causes. In a calibrated example, imposing a uniform tax treatment of donations across charitable causes raises the optimal share of nonprofit funding covered by grants from 0 to 60%.

Irreversible investment in divided times: Complementarity and public good provision

分裂时代的不可逆投资:互补性与公共品供给

Journal of Public Economics · 2026, 262 · Ying Chen、Liuchun Deng、Minako Fujio、M. Ali Khan ·

财政支出与体制公共治理其它财政支出政治经济学与选举

我们研究两个对公共品估值不同的政党轮流执政情形下的技术投资与公共品供给问题。在每一期,执政党选择公共品供给水平,并投资于能够降低未来公共品供给成本的技术。我们刻画了马尔可夫完美均衡,并说明极化程度与投资的不可逆性如何共同塑造长期结果。当极化程度较低时,政权更替可能提高预期技术投资与公共品供给,且稳态结果不受可逆性程度的影响。然而,当极化程度较高时,不可逆性变得重要:偏好公共品的政党投资更为积极,而不可逆投资会促使两党都提供更多的公共品。随着极化程度上升,预期技术存量与公共品供给起初下降,但一旦不可逆性约束开始起约束作用,二者便会向上跃升。

英文原文

We study technology investment and public good provision in a setting where two parties with differing valuations of the public good alternate in power. In each period, the incumbent chooses public good provision and invests in technology that lowers the cost of future public good provision. We characterize Markov perfect equilibria and show how polarization and irreversibility of investment jointly shape long-run outcomes. When polarization is low, power turnover may increase expected technology investment and public good provision, and steady-state outcomes are unaffected by the degree of reversibility. When polarization is high, however, irreversibility becomes important: the party favoring the public good invests more aggressively, and irreversible investment induces higher public good provision by both parties. As polarization rises, expected technology stock and public good provision initially decline but jump upward once the irreversibility constraint binds.